Iimpembelelo Eziphambili ZeMimiselo Yokuthunyelwa KweeNsimbi Ezintsha KwiMarike Yentsimbi Yehlabathi (2026)
I. Izigqibo Eziphambili
Ukuphunyezwa kweTshayina kolawulo lweelayisenisi zokuthumela ngaphandle iimveliso zentsimbi ezimalunga nama-300 (ukuqala ukusebenza nge-1 kaJanuwari 2026), kunye nerhafu yekhabhoni ye-CBAM ye-EU kunye nokukhuselwa korhwebo lwehlabathi, kuya kukhokelela ekuncipheni kwexesha elifutshane kumthamo wokuthumela ngaphandle waseTshayina, utshintsho kwiziko lamaxabiso, ukutshintshwa kwesakhiwo sobonelelo lwehlabathi kunye nomahluko wamaxabiso engingqi, ukwanda kwenani leemveliso zentsimbi ezinexabiso eliphezulu/ezithobelayo, kunye nokulungiswa okukhawulezileyo kwamandla emveliso eyahlukileyo yaphesheya kunye nokuhamba korhwebo.
II. Impembelelo Ethe Tye: Ubonelelo, Amaxabiso, kunye Nokuhamba Korhwebo
1. Icala Lokubonelela: Ukuncipha Kwezinto Ezithunyelwa Ngaphandle eTshayina kunye Nokuhla Kwesantya
Umthamo wokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe: Ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kwentsimbi eTshayina ngo-2026 kulindeleke ukuba kwehle nge-17% unyaka nonyaka ukuya kuthi ga kwi-0.97 yeebhiliyoni zeetoni, kunye nokwehla konyaka nonyaka kwe-**8.1%** okubonwe ngoJanuwari nangoFebruwari; ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kweemveliso ezinexabiso eliphantsi (iibhilethi, intsimbi eqhelekileyo) kuthintelwe kakhulu.
Imida Yokuthobela Umthetho: Iilayisenisi + ukulandelelwa komgangatho + ukukhutshwa kwamanqanaba kuya kususa abathengisi abancinci nabaphakathi kunye nee-odolo ezingathobeliyo umthetho, ngelixa kwandisa isabelo semarike seenkampani eziphambili.
1. **Isiphumo sexesha:** Ixesha lesicelo liziintsuku zokusebenza ezi-3-5, nto leyo ekhokelela ekulibazisekeni kwexesha elifutshane ekugqityweni kwerhafu kunye nokuzalisekiswa kwesivumelwano, kwaye ii-odolo zigxile kwiinkampani ezithobela imithetho.
2. **Icala lexabiso:** Amaxabiso entsimbi yehlabathi ayanyuka, kwaye umahluko wamaxabiso engingqi uyancipha.
Amaxabiso okuthumela ngaphandle eTshayina ayanda: Ukunyuka kweendleko zokuthobela imithetho kunye nokwehla kokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe ngamaxabiso aphantsi ngokungacwangciswanga kukhokelele ekunyukeni kwexabiso eliphakathi lokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kweemveliso zentsimbi ngokubanzi, nto leyo exhasa kakhulu iAsia, uMbindi Mpuma, kunye neLatin America.
Umahluko kumaxabiso engingqi uyancipha: Amaxabiso aseTshayina ayahlangana nabakhuphisana nabo abanjengoJapan, uMzantsi Korea, kunye neIndiya, nto leyo eyenza ukuba kubekho inzuzo kumaxabiso ngelixa amanye esekho.
**Ukongezwa kweendleko:** Ngokusetyenziswa ngokupheleleyo kwe-CBAM ye-EU, iindleko zekhabhoni ngetoni nganye yentsimbi kwiinkampani zentsimbi ezisebenza ixesha elide zinyuke malunga ne-€45, nto leyo ebangela ukuba ukhuphiswano lokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kwentsimbi engeyoyaluhlaza luqhubekeke.
3. **Ukuhamba koRhwebo:** Ii-odolo ziyatshintshela kwindlela eyahlukileyo yokusebenza kunye neendlela ezithobela imithetho.
I-Belt and Road Initiative, i-ASEAN, i-Middle East, kunye ne-Latin America zisezezona ndawo ziphambili, kodwa umthamo wee-odolo kunye nokuphindaphinda kwazo kuyaphucuka, kunye nenani eliphezulu lee-odolo ezingenabungozi bungako, nezithobela imithetho kakhulu.
**Umthamo Ongahlukileyo:** Ukusetyenziswa kwamandla okongeziweyo eIndiya, eTurkey, e-ASEAN, naseMpuma Yurophu kuyayitshintsha indlela efunwa ngayo izinto ezikumgangatho ophantsi naphakathi, nto leyo ebangela ukwanda kokunikezelwa kwezinto kwezinye iindawo kodwa amaxabiso enyuka ngokufanelekileyo.
Iimveliso zexabiso eliphezulu: Intsimbi ekhethekileyo, intsimbi enamandla aphezulu, kunye nentsimbi yombane zibekwe phambili kwiziqinisekiso zokuthumela ngaphandle kunye nezabelo. Ubonelelo lwehlabathi lweemveliso zexabiso eliphezulu luncinci, nto leyo ebangela ukuba amaxabiso aqine.
III. Iindlela Eziphakathi Nezexesha Elide: Ukuphuculwa Nokuhlengahlengiswa Kwezakhiwo
Ukuphuculwa koBume boThumelo lwangaphandle: Umlinganiselo weemveliso ezinexabiso eliphantsi uyancipha, iipleyiti eziphezulu, intsimbi ekhethekileyo, kunye nentsimbi eluhlaza ziba zizinto eziphambili. Urhwebo luyatshintsha ukusuka “ekuncitshisweni kwamaxabiso okuqhutywa ngumthamo” ukuya ekukhuleni komgangatho kunye nokuthobela imithetho.
Ukutshintsha Umhlaba Wokhuphiswano Lwehlabathi: Imiqobo yorhwebo iya isiba yinto eqhelekileyo. Imiqobo emithathu ye-CBAM + iilayisenisi + amanyathelo okulwa nokulahla inkunkuma itshintsha ukuthunyelwa kwentsimbi eTshayina ukusuka "kwinzuzo enkulu" ukuya kwinzuzo epheleleyo yobuchwepheshe + iindleko + ukuthobela imithetho.
Amandla kunye neNtsebenziswano eKhawulezileyo yaMazwe ngaMazwe: Iinkampani eziphambili ziseka imisebenzi yokunyibilikisa/yokucubungula kwamanye amazwe ukunciphisa ukuxhomekeka kokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kunye nokuphucula ukunikezelwa kwemveliso kwindawo kunye nokukwazi ukuthobela i-carbon.
IV. Iingozi eziphambili kunye neempawu
Iingozi zexesha elifutshane: Ukwehla kwee-odolo zokuthumela ngaphandle, ukunyuka kweendleko zokuthobela imithetho (malunga ne-50-100 RMB ngokuthunyelwa ngakunye), kunye nokunyuka kweendleko zizonke ngenxa yokuthunyelwa kunye nokuphazamiseka kwezopolitiko.
Iimpawu Ezilungileyo: Umyalelo ophucukileyo wokuthumela ngaphandle, umjikelo olungileyo wamaxabiso, kunye namandla okwanda kwezivumelwano zeemveliso ezikumgangatho ophezulu zinciphisa uxinzelelo oluvela kwiingxabano zorhwebo lwamazwe ngamazwe.
V. Isishwankathelo Ingongoma yemithetho emitsha kukulawula umthamo opheleleyo, ukuphucula ulwakhiwo, kunye nokuqinisa ukuthotyelwa kwemithetho. Ngexesha elifutshane, oku kuya kukhokelela ekunciphiseni ukuthunyelwa kwempahla eTshayina, ukunyuka kwamaxabiso ehlabathi, kunye nokulungelelaniswa kwakhona kokunikezelwa kunye nemfuno. Ngexesha eliphakathi nelide, kuya kukhuthaza ukuphuculwa korhwebo lwentsimbi lwehlabathi ukuya kwixabiso elongezelelekileyo, i-carbon ephantsi, kunye nokuthobela imithetho, kwaye kukhawulezise ukwakhiwa kwamandla okuvelisa ahlukeneyo kunye nokwahlulwahlulwa kwabasebenzi bengingqi.
Ixesha lokuthumela: Matshi-13-2026